Predictions for 5d2 price IF 5d3 released

[SimonG]

Hi everyone, I would appreciate your advice and I'm sorry if this has already been asked before. I know crystal balls can sometimes be a little hazy (even with polarizing filters attached), but based on history I have a question:

If 5d3 was announced/released, what do you think would happen with 5d2 stock and price? I guess there would be a discount or run-out deal, but how much, and how much 5d2 stock is out there, considering how popular it is? Can anyone fill me in, even roughly, on what happened with 5d original at this stage?

I know, no-one can know for sure and I'm not necessarily needing an "even if the replacement comes, the old camera is still good" lecture.

I'm just curious, as I'm currently deciding between getting a used body (maybe 5d) and waiting for 5d3, OR just getting the 5d2 now, and used APS-C body as backup. At the same time, I'm not in a rush, and want to make a decision that will make the most of my funds. I'm hoping to get kit that will let me move into shooting weddings in the future. I know both options mean different things for lens purchases and use now/future.

Thankyou very much for your help!

[Kym]

It will go down if a 5DIII is release

FYI a 5DIII is not coming soon (according to rumour); The current rumours are for a 1100D and 600D as the next Canon releases.

[Xenedis]

The 5D line, like the 1Ds line, has traditionally been one to stay on the market as a current model for quite some time.

The XXXD and the XXD models seem to have a much shorter lifecycle -- typically 18 months at the most.

Naturally with any replacement, the retailers will be keen to push the predecessor model out the door, which typically means reduced prices.

[SimonG]

Thanks for the replies - Kym, where did you read about the 600D etc releases? By 5DIII not coming soon, do you mean not this year, or not in the next 2-3 months?

[Xenedis]

Kym, where did you read about the 600D etc releases?

Probably a rumour site.

Only Canon knows when products are going to be released.

Those who talk don't know, and those who know don't talk.

[Kym]

Pure speculation and rumour.... http://www.canonrumors.com/2011/01/n...l-information/

Not that I know anything about Canon so I'll use my right to rumour Much more fun

BTW http://www.canonrumors.com/category/...n-5d-mark-iii/ (Nov/Dec 2011)

[SimonG]

Well, I got a 5d2 today, so judging by my uncanny lack of luck with these things, we can expect a price drop on these cameras any day now.

Now I'm waiting for the rest of my Sony stuff to sell, and I can get some lenses & flash!

[JM Tran]

when the 5D2 came out 2 yrs ago, the 5D classic were still fetching around $1800 body only. In 2011 the 5D classic still pull around 1k for body only. So dont expect a big massive drop on a 5D2 for quite a while when the new model comes out - which wont be any time soon.

I never understood the wait for newer models to appear, if you had waited long enough for a 5D3 or something, might as well wait a few yrs later for a 5D4 or 5!

[Bercy]

It is odd to feel somehow cheated because a new model comes out. Guess what, you can take quite a good picture with a 20D and a good lens. I have a Fuji 602 and I still use it. It cost $1,600 new! Did I get value out of it? Obviously yes! Just buy a camera that suits the intended purpose and then then stop looking at new cameras!

[William]

It is odd to feel somehow cheated because a new model comes out. Guess what, you can take quite a good picture with a 20D and a good lens. I have a Fuji 602 and I still use it. It cost $1,600 new! Did I get value out of it? Obviously yes! Just buy a camera that suits the intended purpose and then then stop looking at new cameras!

I'm still shooting with my 30D and 350D, I dont want to blow the image up to Billboard size , But I must admit that I'd like a Second hand 5D Full frame now that I have a 24-105 f4 L and access to a 17-40 EF , I'm still waiting for the 30D to die !! Still takes a good image IMO

[SimonG]

It is odd to feel somehow cheated because a new model comes out.

I don't think it's 'odd' - you want to feel like you got the best camera for limited money. You buy something, and the next day it's on special for 25% off and you don't wish you had waited? It's not about feeling 'cheated', but you do wish you had waited. It doesn't mean the camera you have is less capable. For some of us, buying a product when it's on special/the price is reduced might mean getting the same camera, as well as a lens or something else also! Frankly speaking if I can avoid buying a product at the highest possible price, I will tend to do so.

Yeah we all know almost any camera can still take great photos, we all know that a 20d can still take good photos, this is such 'red herring' type debating. Ask a sharemarket investor if he would prefer to buy shares looking at historical trends and buy relatively cheaper, or just blindly dive in saying "just buy the shares that suit your needs".

[William]

Simon , On a Pension , I'm talking limited money , Every bit of photography gear (Except my Nifty Fifty) Is Second hand , But I do agree with what you said in your comment , Mate I have a wish list a mile long , But I deal with what I have to work with , It's all good - Cheers Bill

[SimonG]

Thanks Bill, no offence intended. Not really sure what the point of your post is, but it sounds like you've got a nice set-up that works for you.

Just in regards to your thinking about 2nd hand 5d's, there are quite a few in good condition on gumtree and ebay lately? The benefits of combining a full-frame and APSC sensor make your lens collection more versatile! I was thinking about getting an original 5d myself, but ended up with a (used) 5d2 - mainly for the extra high ISO ability.

[Camerashy]

In my recent discussions and email exchanges with Sydney camera retailers before getting my 5D2/24-105 kit two weeks ago, there was a wide range of prices and freebies thrown in to try to get me to buy. A 3 year Canon Australia warranty was routinely offered instead of 1 year, which is a reasonably good sign that the current model is in the final phase of its life cycle. Extra batteries, filters, bags etc. were also on offer. I used the prospect of a Mk3 coming out later this year to get the price of a domestic model down to grey market levels, which met with less resistance than I was expecting. Intriguingly one retailer mentioned that he had been talking to Canon Australia recently and had been told that the 5D Mk3 would be coming out towards the end of this year but "would not be full frame". Make of that what you will... I have no idea why that would be the case, given full frame is its main selling point, but if it turns out to be true, you heard it here first.

[pollen]

Regarding new releases,

Anyone who does know won't tell you

Anyone who tells you doesn't know

[fabian628]

The second hand price could get pretty low once / if a 5d 3 is released due to massive offloading of 5D2's into the second hand market. At the moment on ebay there are 3-5 selling a week, i think there would be many more listed, so people could pick and choose and not have to pay much.
I reccon it would go down to $1800 for a nice clean seocnd hand body. Considering they are selling for around $2010-2200 at the moment, its not such a big drop, and we dont know when the new camera is likely to be released.

[davearnold]

I hope the 5D2 price drops, I would love one.

But in reality, on a supply and demand basis, think there will be still a lot of people wanting one, even when a new 5d3 comes out, and even though the price will drop, I do not think it will be a dramatic drop and will stay highish for a while to come.

A sort of example of this is used 50D's, they are still demanding good prices secondhand, because even though out of production, they are still a very good camera.

Cheers

[reaction]

+1 on the idea the 5d2 would go down if 5d3 is released
and then initially 5d3 stock will be tight, price will be high
then 5d2 stock gets low and 5d3 stock comes
then 5d2 is really cheap, but can't find stock
then 5d3 firmware comes out, and becomes plentiful and cheap
the last 5d2 at small stores then sell for more than the 5d3 at some discount stores