Since upgrading to Adobe Lightroom 3 I appear to have a problem with the dates of my imported photos and I'm baffled as to what is going on or how to fix it.

Basically I import my photos into Lightroom using the default folders it creates - basically:

YYYY/
YYYY-MM-DD/

however I get it to rename my files into YYYYMMDD_XXX.NEF filename format (where XXX is just an incrementing sequence number).

So here is my problem - files shot before about 2PM are correctly named with the correct date and put into the correct dated folder - e.g. photos I took today went into the folder:

2010-08-22

and were named:

20100822_XXX.NEF

However files shot after about 2PM do go into the correct DAY folder (i.e. 2010-08-22 for today) but the filenames end up as 20100823_XXX.NEF (i.e. tomorrows date?).

I was originally thinking it's something to do with UTC time or something - however in the EXIF data for the files the date/time is set correctly and I've checked my camera (Nikon D90) date/time, etc settings and my Mac laptop date/time settings and they are both correct. I didn't have this problem before - it only seems to have appeared after upgrading to Lightroom 3 - any ideas?