2018 was the worst year for the digital camera sales since peaking in 2009 - CIPA

[dolina]

The above graph on interchangeable lens camera shipment December data from CIPA: While the market for interchangeable lens cameras and lenses is down, it’s been the digital compact market (point & shoots) which has suffered most, although the carnage of the last five years seems to be levelling off. Holding up the interchangeables market is the mirrorless segment, which according to more detailed CIPA figures, in fact increased year-on-year sales compared to 2017 by 1.4 percent in volume and 23 percent in value.


So while compacts are falling way behind, DSLRs are falling behind as well, which has resonances with that old joke about the two hikers being pursued by a bear. DSLR’s still outsell mirrrorless cameras by 6.62 million (61.5%) to 4.14 million (38.5%), but in dollars terms, the value of the two segments is about equal.

Source: https://www.insideimaging.com.au/201...-camera-stats/

Canon recently said they expect two more years of market shrinking until market stabilizes.

Source: https://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/new...camera-market/

[dolina]

The table above shows the CIPA sales data from 2015-2018, CIPA's projected camera sales for 2019 & Canon's projected camera sales for 2020.

Based on the CIPA 2019 & Canon 2020 sales figure I am fairly confident that companies like Canon & Nikon may not release any more new DSLR (Reflex) models anymore before July 2020 and instead put in all their R&D money into more mirrorless camera bodies and lenses that are equal or exceed the features, capability and accuracy of DSLRs sold today.

Canon CEO also noted mirrorless camera sales aren't significantly adding to its bottom line, but are instead significantly eating into the sales of DSLRs. If any R&D capital is going to cannibalize your money makers during your current product's mid-cycle then you may as well just release new generation of mirrorless camera models at the end of the product cycle of your DSLRs.

Personally, I would prefer 1 more generation of DSLRs within the next 17.5 months but market forces may force the 1D X Mark II, 5D Mark IV, 5Ds / 5Ds R, 6D Mark II and 7D Mark II to be the last full frame and high end APS-C DSLR models to be developed.

[ricktas]

My thoughts on this are two.

1) phone cameras are taking over for a lot of people.
2) Camera development has slowed. We are seeing new models, with the same sensor as the previous model (and other aspects of design), but with other minor tinkering improvements. People are not upgrading because they do not see the newer models as an upgrade.

[Dan05]

So my take isn’t much different to your Rick. People that don’t know how to use a camera to it’s full potential arnt buying. Cameras on phones have come a long way and the quality rivals some of the smaller cameras.

On the other end, we are all looking for the next new design that will get us closer to the perfect shot. Not much has happened over the past few years apart from the mirror less ones and they cost a fortune. So not much happening in sales unfortunately.


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[arthurking83]

Market saturation!

People have what they need now, and no amount of enticement from the manufacturers will change that!

Back in the early part of the past decade, cameras whilst good, seemingly still had a lot of room to 'get better'. (better as in performance in an overall manner of speaking, not just one aspect of it)

So as cameras, and camera sensor tech surged, so did the rate of it's growth. That is, last years camera is really no better than this years!
But! ... 2006's camera wasn't half as good as 2007's camera.

So, in the last decade people saw a reason to buy 'this years' camera, and either stop using last years camera, or sell it off ....

If they want to sell more .. then with market saturation being what it is ... the only way to achieve higher sales is via lower price points.

Smartphone sales have peaked, and now in a slow decline too. It's paralleling what happened to the digital camera market with about a 6 year(or so) lag.
But the phone market has many cheaper option manufacturers which are in effect holding up it's sales volumes.
No such vendor exists in the camera market space. ie. there are no Huawei/OPPO/Xaomi type half decent quality manufacturer of cameras, so it makes sense that overall volume of the market is declining.

[John King]

I see this trend as a return to pre-digital sales balance.

Smartphones have replaced Instamatic and basic fixed lens camera sales.

ILC have always been a relatively expensive, niche market.

[Lance B]

My thoughts on this are two.

1) phone cameras are taking over for a lot of people.
2) Camera development has slowed. We are seeing new models, with the same sensor as the previous model (and other aspects of design), but with other minor tinkering improvements. People are not upgrading because they do not see the newer models as an upgrade.

That's it in a nutshell, Rick. All I ever see now are phone cameras and only the die heard DSLR/Mirrorless users generally with pro spec cameras. Less and less lower spec DSLR's and P&S's to the point I rarely see any! It was the P&S and lower spec DSLR's that were the big sellers years ago and that part of the market seems to have basically disappeared. Also, as you say, there is less reason for people to "upgrade" as their current DSLR which they may have purchased back in the "heyday" of digital camera sales as for most people it is probably more camera then they will probably ever need any way. The thing is, *everyone* has a phone with them these days with their camera phone and thus many of us, even me, tend to leave their "proper camera" at home if it is not a specific camera shoot. It's just easier to take your phone and capture that moment when it occurs as you always have it with you. Camera phones are reasonably good in most situations for most people and it's always in your pocket.