Can any horse beat Atlantic Jewel?

[Mark L]

Puissance de Lune?
Would be the only horse that seems to have a chance. Race 6, no.8 in Melbourne on Saturday. An exciting horse.

And for macmich.
A bit of value. Bulbula. Melbourne race 1, no.3
Topical tip for election day. A Time For Julia. Melbourne race 8, no.16.

[ameerat42]

(Wot's happening? Cannot post.)

Mark. Yes, a mare called Pacific Pearl.

OK, Latin mare for "sea".

(If two posts turn up I'll eat my hat!)

[farmer_rob]

I'll bite - it depends on distance. She has run 1100 to 2000m, but her only 2000m race was against 3yo fillies. Stepping up to the 2040 cox plate against serious wfa horses will be an entirely different proposition. She's only run once at moonee valley, against 3yo fillies in a non-black type race. As a 5 yo, has she got the turn of speed and agility to handle the turn at speed? If Kavanagh sticks to 1400-1600m, I think she'll keep doing well. But a longer distance? I think she's vulnerable.

If you're talking about the cox plate, I think Ethiopia has a pretty fair chance - 4th in the cox plate behind Ocean Park, All Too Hard and Pierro - none of whom are nominated.

[macmich]

thank you
cheers macca

[Mark L]

... She's only run once at moonee valley, against 3yo fillies in a non-black type race. As a 5 yo, has she got the turn of speed and agility to handle the turn at speed? If Kavanagh sticks to 1400-1600m,....

They are fair comments Rob and as you'd know, it's speculation 'til it's done.
She's only had the chance to race 7 times and handled it all. I think she'll handle anything. Also one wonders if Puissance de Lune has the agility for Mooney Valley. Suspect these two will be fighting out the finish of the Cox Plate (it's the race they're setting her for). Suspect they are lengths better than Ocean Park.
Pity All Too Hard and Pierro get retired as 3YOs. What a Cox plate it would be this year if they weren't.
Let's hope they stay healthy. Ah, Spring carnivals are so good.

[farmer_rob]

Given Atlantic Jewel has never been beaten, who knows what her limit is. I still think she's untested over longer distances, and the step up from 1600m can be a big one (especially with some trainers.)

BTW, I'm no great fan of Ocean Park, but I do think he was a worthy winner. If you compare times, it seems to me that, if they were both in the Cox Plate, they'd be competitive. It's a crying shame that some of the best racehorses of recent times (e.g. Pierro, All Too Hard) have been retired to stud.

I haven't been paying enough attention recently to really have a view on the metro class horses running around at the moment (too many breeding disappointments - Anyone want to by a 2yo Statue of Liberty filly? - and we are waiting on the one decent horse we have bred to pop up again after a solid win at Cranbourne.)

But I'm still hopeful the spring will be interesting.

[Mark L]

Reason: wrong smiley!

Made me
Jeez, I remember your post about that Cranbourne winner. 'twas some time ago. Hopefully they are patient owners with a long term plan.

[farmer_rob]

Now I'm confused - the cranbourne winner I'm talking about was 22 weeks ago (and I wasn't posting on Ausphotography at the time - although I did tweet). We did manage to breed another winner (he won first up about 2 years ago in Warrnambool, but only managed a couple of seconds after that. His career ended after 15 starts due to being a bleeder.)

Anyway, the more recent one had his second start at Cranbourne and a dominant win. He's now a 4yo, and I believe the current owners want to send him to Hong Kong, but he hasn't shown up there yet. (Their business is selling racehorses in Hong Kong - to get the, the horse needs to have won a race worth more than $15,000 and pass a series of onerous vet tests. If he fails, I'd expect to see him race successfully in Victoria. If he passes, I hope he'd race successfully in Hong Kong, but that is a big task.)

If I see him pop up, I'll be letting everyone know!

[Mark L]

Sorry, was some time ago.
Some other AP member has also bred a winner then. But a quick site search can't find the thread I was referring to (and instead of searching any more I'm going to sleep. Only two more long days of electoral commission work to go and then I'll start making sense again!!

[farmer_rob]

I did the search thing too - but only really to establish that I hadn't commented a few months back. Good luck with the electoral work. - must be a busy time. (At least the election won't really impinge on the spring racing.)

[macmich]

thank you mark
won a new flash on todays effort
cheers macca

[Mark L]

Thanks for making me smile macca.
Just watched the replays after a 15 hour day and a long week helping a lot of people vote. Didn't really have a chance to figure my betting formula, so just had a quick bet.
How frustrating. I might have a new flash also, if Puissance de Lune's nose was a little longer. mmmmm

[macmich]

mark
its my day, just won $367.50 in tattslotto
study up for next friday
cheers macca

[Mark L]

Wow, macca's gunna buy me a new flash

[Analog6]

I've been watching her and waiting for the media to start trumpeting about the new Black Caviar!