A most comprehensive and thoughtful discourse Andrew.
Now my enlightenment of the laws of Physics dates back to the 1950's and may be a little rusty, more likely very rusty, but would not the fulcrum point in the camera/lens equation be the lens mounting point.
Irrespective of where the tripod collar sits on the lens, you still have the total unsupported weigh of the camera body hanging off the mounting plate. I always assumed the balancing point was more to do with exactly that, balance, so you were not placing a front or back heavy set-up over a tripod head.
From a stress point of view, as I said above, it seems the better option to have 850gm unsupported, than the 1.3kg that my D600 + grip weighs. (I just weighed them)
What is the unknown here is how that combination will balance on my tripod, and whether it causes any unwanted additional vibration.
PS: The whole purpose of this exercise is to get a VR lens that's not too heavy, to use when hand-holding is required.
PPS: This is starting to make my head hurt.