Kim Jong-Un and North Korea

[Bear Dale]

It's seems to be heating up a little more each 24 hours, I hope it's all rhetoric but the South Koreans have intelligence just in that the North is fuelling up missiles. The rocket fuel is supposed to be very corrosive and can only be left for a day or so before the missile has to be fired otherwise it will destroy the rocket system of the missile.

[Steve Axford]

He plays a very dangerous game. I think it would be foolish to assume that it is all bluff. I presume that it is all part of a power struggle in Nth Korea, but these things have a habit of going wrong. I think that cool heads are needed to get through this one.

[Wayne]

I think if he starts anything but a missile for the celebrations of his families birthday, and particularly if he starts playing with nukes, he will see a modern day Hiroshima. Sad thing is that he could learn from the Japanese experience without having to feel it for himself and all of the innocent North Koreans.

[Bear Dale]

I agree Steve, I don't think that anyone knows what he's capable of and just how much the military will support him if he gives them the order.

I hope that the U.S have the ordinance to bring it to a quick and decisive end if they (NK) do make an initial launch or artillery bombardment on the south. I'd say that they would have submarines positioned loaded with Tomahawk cruise missiles like they rained down on Iraq in the very first hours of the first Persian Gulf war.

I'm just worried that there has been so much world media coverage (even in Nth Korea) that if Kim doesn't do something, he's going to lose face and that's something I don't know if he's prepared to do.

[Cage]

It is scary to see a boy playing games with millions of peoples lives. Does he think he has to 'prove' himself? Did he not study History at school?

If he does push the button to launch a nuclear missile, I fear that retribution will be swift, and devastating.

I really am at a loss to understand the mindset of people in power who want to launch attacks on other countries. Possibly it is because we are very insular here in the 'lucky country', free from the residue of thousands of years of cross-border conflicts.

In this instance I hope sanity prevails, and some wise old heads are sought out for guidance.

[MissionMan]

Given the trigger happy nature of the US, he'll go down in history as the dumbest leader. The USA is not a country you want to play chicken with, and if he launches a missile the US is going to shoot first and then find out whether in was a nuke later.

I'm willing to bet the vast majority of NK's do not want a war and would be happy to see the demise. Unfortunately they'll bare the brunt of his stupidity.

[macmich]

i do not know why you are all worrying about north korea when there is a bigger problem on our own shores, with James hird being labelled a drug cheat

[Sifor]

Honestly I think whether it progresses into an all out war will be largely determined by the US/SK and Japan.

I do not think the regime will willingly be the ones to actually target and attempt to destroy SK, Japan or the US. I think they will do a test fire of their medium range missile, and take it from there. I am, however, concerned SK/Japan/US will intercept and destroy the missile in flight. THAT is what will likely start a war. Yes, NK launching a missile in blatant disregard for the international community is clearly provocative, but having their missile intercepted will mandate a response from NK. It's a similar reason why countries with ICBM capability do not use them with conventional warheads to strike targets around the world... the very act would demand a response (likely nuclear) from the defending country.

While the regime are clearly ###### up in the head, even they would know any war would be to the absolute detriment of themselves and their country... unless they are counting on China to come to their aid, which they won't, China's future lies in further deriving wealth from the West. Lets hope the situation calms once Kim is able to shore up his military credentials to avoid any coup d'état from the military.

No one really knows though what will happen, I think everyone just tries to give their best guess.

[geoffsta]

Possibly it is because we are very insular here in the 'lucky country'

We truly are... There are many countries that absolutely no respect for life at all. Were dying of old age is more luck than good management.
If you wanted to take out all the people like Kim Jong-Un. You would have to bomb a good half of the northern hemisphere. Sad but true..

[Mark L]

Well JimD and MissionMan, don't confuse oil and self importance with the right thing to do. There is a different regime in Washington now. Even G.W.Bush wouldn't play with the something so close to China for no corporate gain.
Kim Jong-Un is probably just playing the old North Korean line of "look at me, look at me" so we don't look at the suffering of the people in that country.
If some cared about humanity, Saddam could have waited and North Korea would have been settled a long time ago!! (oil, self importance)
That's my simple take on a more complex situation.

[MissionMan]

Well JimD and MissionMan, don't confuse oil and self importance with the right thing to do. There is a different regime in Washington now. Even G.W.Bush wouldn't play with the something so close to China for no corporate gain.
Kim Jong-Un is probably just playing the old North Korean line of "look at me, look at me" so we don't look at the suffering of the people in that country.
If some cared about humanity, Saddam could have waited and North Korea would have been settled a long time ago!! (oil, self importance)
That's my simple take on a more complex situation.

There may not be oil but launch a missile at a US base and you're guaranteed to get a result.

[Wayne]

There may not be oil but launch a missile at a US base and you're guaranteed to get a result.

The Japanese learned the hard way about the wrath you attract when you awaken a sleeping giant, I agree, Pyongyang will be treated no differently by the Pentagon.

[MattNQ]

China should just invade Nth Korea & shut them up for good.

[Michaelcuneo]

It is scary to see a boy playing games with millions of peoples lives. Does he think he has to 'prove' himself? Did he not study History at school?

If he does push the button to launch a nuclear missile, I fear that retribution will be swift, and devastating.

I really am at a loss to understand the mindset of people in power who want to launch attacks on other countries. Possibly it is because we are very insular here in the 'lucky country', free from the residue of thousands of years of cross-border conflicts.

In this instance I hope sanity prevails, and some wise old heads are sought out for guidance.

I heard recently that he did study history at school... the problem was, he only finished school a few years ago. He's a damn kid... running a country. Some websites state that he's 30 ... but other places have said that they threw 10 years on top of that to make him look like he wasn't under-experienced for such a task. No wonder he's making stupid decisions, 20 year olds can't run things.

[Mark L]

There may not be oil but launch a missile at a US base and you're guaranteed to get a result.

And that's why they won't!

[Mathy]

The question that friends and I have been pondering is not whether the military will support him if he gives the order but, whether the military are actually running the show, given his youth and inexperience.

Well, this lobbed up on the ABC website Wednesday, http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-1...lusive/4621358 , it's worth reading to the end.

If you consider the concept of NK being a cult rather than a despot regime, then they are dangerous and there's every possibility that they are going to do something outstandingly stupid. Russia and China (NKs best mates) are busy oppressing people themselves. China, in particular, is busy destroying the culture of Tibet. Why are either of these countries going to be interested in toning down the NK rhetoric ? They would look like the hypocrites they actually are, in fact, they no doubt can see some positives in NK launching and there being some sort of retaliation.

My heart is with the NK civilians - the men, women and children, innocent victims of a despotic regime, who the world has chosen to ignore and failed to support - other than supplying food aid. And, let's face it, there are certain countries, where the rest of the world doesn't particularly care about what happens to the population - no oil, no uranium, no gold, blah, blah, blah - not worth being concerned about

I was never a supporter of the war in Iraq because I doubted the reasons. I do feel that there's been too much pussy footing around with NK, and now the chooks have come home to roost. As my Mum would have said, time for a good old fashioned 'clip around the ear', however that might work in this particular scenario.

[ameerat42]

And all the time you have to ask yourself, "How do you know what (you think) you know?"

[Bear Dale]

I just hope that nothing happens, because like in all things like this.....it will be the innocents that suffer the most.

[Lance B]

I heard recently that he did study history at school... the problem was, he only finished school a few years ago. He's a damn kid... running a country. Some websites state that he's 30 ... but other places have said that they threw 10 years on top of that to make him look like he wasn't under-experienced for such a task. No wonder he's making stupid decisions, 20 year olds can't run things.

The problem is, he isn't running it, the generals are, and that's the firghtening thing, they are most assuredly revving him up against the "evil west".

[JM Tran]

Back when I was at Duntroon and at my unit, we occasionally ran theoretical plans for contingencies and scenarios in the eventually that conflict with North Korea will arise and how Australia and NZ can support the US, Japan, South Korea and other regional allies.

Here are some dot points on responses and facts that some of you did not know about or the news did not report:

-The US finishing its lease of Subic Bay in the Philippines had led to a power vacumn in their force projection power in SE Asia, with the most noticeable fleet sizes and logistics based at Pearl Harbour and Shizuoka in Japan. As a result, Darwin in the last few years has seen a big military build up and new US installations popping up as an interim solution. Darwin itself would serve as a strategic city and the halfway line between everything. As its distance is far enough to be considered safer yet close enough to still reach into northern Asia.

-Do not fall for the numbers game when counting military personnel. As large as North Korea's military number is, not everyone is a rifleman or a front line combatant. No units has fought in any small to large scale conflicts since 1953 and therefore lacks combat experience and unit cohesion on a large scale when it comes to a shooting war. They may have attacked South Korean assets in the past but these are viewed as isolated incidence and not a real battle.

-The US and its regional allies are able to achieve 'air supremacy' within a few days if conflict eventuates, air supremacy is when you are able to control airspace and deny any enemy aircrafts from being in the air, 'air superiority' is when you have a numerical advantage than your enemy in the air. As a result, this would be similar to the opening days of the 1991 Gulf War - and would not bode well for any North Korean units on the ground starved from air support and logistics and transportation.

-Australia in its current state can only supply Navy destroyers and frigates to join battle fleets or serve as air defence screening. The RAAF can send the usual Hercules and a C17 or 2 to aid logistics in Guam, and other installations in SE Asia. The Army will send the usual light infantry battalions with light armour assets. No tanks has been deployed overseas since the Vietnam war and will probably remain that way - as we only received a division of 2nd hand Abrams 8 years ago.

-In a realist term, we agreed that sometimes - a number of lives must be lost, to overcome the totalitarian regime of North Korea, in order for change and rebuilding to happen. On paper, it is sound to say that thousands of lives sometimes must be sacrificed to save millions in the long term. However, we are in Australia and do not have the same emotional connection as those in South Korea who have family and relatives in the North.

There were many more points we discussed but this was off the top of my head